Cambodia Rice: World Rice Exports to Shrink While India and Pakistan Grab Market Share, Says IGC

Cambodia Rice: World Rice Exports to Shrink While India and Pakistan Grab Market Share, Says IGC

The International Grains Council (IGC) forecasts 2012 rice exports from India and Pakistan will grow significantly even as the total global rice exports will decline by about 7.62% from 34.1 million tons in 2010-11 to 31.5 million tons in 2011-12, a steeper decline than that predicted by the USDA and FAO.

In its latest Grain report, the IGC said that India’s rice exports will grow to around 5 million tons in 2012, an increase of around 32% year over year. Pakistan rice exports will also grow to around 3 million tons in 2012. According to the IGC, the two South Asian nations will dent the market share of other origins listed as the world’s top 5 rice exporters: Thailand, Vietnam and the U.S. Thailand will remain the top rice exporter, but Thai rice exports are expected to reduce from 10.5 million tons in 2010-11 to 7.2 million tons in 2011-12, a decrease of over 31%. Vietnam rice exports are also expected to decline from 7.1 million tons in 2010-11 to 6.5 million tons in 2011-12. Exports from the U.S. are estimated to decline from last year’s 3.5 million tons to 2.9 million tons this year.

The IGC attributes the reduction in rice exports to reduced demand form top rice importers in South East Asia. The Philippines is forecast to increase its rice imports from 1.2 million tons last year to 1.7 million tons in 2011-12, according to IGC figures. Indonesia’s rice imports are expected to reduce significantly from 2.6 million tons of rice in 2010-11 to 0.9 million tons in 2011-12, a decline of nearly 65%. In 2012, Bangladesh is expected to halve its rice requirements form 1.4 million tons last year to around 0.7 million tons in 2011-12. The IGC said, “World trade in calendar 2012 is forecast to contract sharply, by 8%, to 31.5 million tons, owing to significantly reduced shipments to markets in Far East Asia.”

The IGC report also said that global rice output will grow up by 2% to around 459 million tons and the year will end in a surplus of around 98.1 million tons of rice, which is the highest in nine years.

Recently, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO) had estimated in its outlook for 2012 rice exports that weakening demand from Asian importing nations, which have a comfortable domestic supply, will cause a small decline from 34.3 million tons in 2011 to 33.8 million tons in 2012. FAO said the shortfall in exports will stem from Thailand’s being made uncompetitive due to its rice pledging scheme. The FAO has predicted, “Much of the shortfall in Thai deliveries is likely to be met by larger shipments from India, following the lifting of export restrictions. Australia, China, Pakistan and Vietnam are also foreseen to raise exports next year, while Argentina, Brazil, Myanmar, the United States and Uruguay may witness a contraction.” The USDA is forecasting a decline of world rice exports to about 31.8 million tons. Source:Oryza

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